A place for redditors to discuss quantitative trading, statistical methods, econometrics, programming, implementation, automated strategies, and bounce ideas off each other for constructive criticism. Feel free to submit papers/links of things you find interesting.
Hey guys, was wondering if any of you fx traders are on irc. I am on #FXTrader on irc freenode. if there is any channels related to fx do share. Hope you guys pop by
I receive EITC and don’t want forex screwing it up. I can not have more than few K of investment income with this. So, is Forex profit income or investment income? Bonus question: We must pay tax on this. Does the 15.3% SS/Medicare self employment tax apply to Forex income?
What are some of the best apps you have on your Mac? here are mine
I have just upgraded my 2012 MBP to the latest one and am reviewing the software I have installed and going through what I use frequently enough to merit keeping on the brand new system. Figured I would share the list here and get some good recommendations from the community as well. Paid or free, does not matter. I love discovering new and useful apps and hope you find something new and interesting in this list too. Here is what I use frequently or semi-frequently:
Standard Notes
Cost: Free (all core functionality) with paid features (themes and editor customizations) Site: https://standardnotes.org/ It is an open-source, end-to-end encrypted, cross-platform text based notes application. End-to-end encryption means no one (not even the company itself) can read the notes you keep here unless they have access to your password. It syncs flawlessly on all devices and the bulk and most useful features are free.
Itsy Cal
Cost: Free Site: https://www.mowglii.com/itsycal/ Great little utility that provides you with the calendar in the menu bar. Its provide a more concise but slightly less attractive menu calendar option than Fantastical 2.
Fantastical 2
Cost: $40 Site: https://flexibits.com/fantastical If you have been using MacOS for more than a few months then you surely have heard of it. It is a great calendar replacement.
Quassell Client
Cost: Free Site: https://quassel-irc.org/ An open source and cross-platform IRC application. It is slightly less polished than the paid Textual 7 IRC app for MacOS but I use it because it provides the Core/Client capability. So I have the core running on an always on Windows server on my home network and I use the client app on my Mac and Windows computers to connect to the same IRC session. Sort of an always on IRC solution.
Omni Disk Sweeper
Cost: Free Site: https://www.omnigroup.com/more A free utility from Omni Group that provides stats on storage usage. it's free and useful.
Cost: $10 Site: https://pilotmoon.com/popclip/ A neat utility that pops up some options when you select any text. It's hard to explain how cool it is. Try out the free trial.
Bartender 3
Cost: $15 Site: https://www.macbartender.com/ A neat utility to customize and hide icons from your Mac's menu bar. Try the free trial.
Proton VPN
Cost: Free for one device, subscription for multiple devices Site: https://protonvpn.com/ An awesome VPN that provides unlimited bandwitdth for free for one device (at a time, so you can install on your iphone and ipad too but can only have one active connection at a time, for example, when travelling)
Signal Desktop Sync
Cost: Free Site: https://signal.org/ Free, open source, cross platform (no ipad) encrypted messaging app recommended by Edward Snowden.
DayOne
Cost: Free on one device, Subscription for sync on multiple devices and features Site: https://dayoneapp.com/ A diary and journaling app that provides (for subscription) end-to-end encrypted syncing for your diaries on all your devices (iOS, iPadOS, MacOS only, no Windows and the web app does not support end-to-end encrypted journals).
MS Remote Desktop 10
Cost: Free Site: Get from Mac App Store Remote Desktop app for connecting to all Windows machines on your network or at work
Cost: Free Site: Get it from Mac App Store A very handy utility to stop your mac from going to sleep. basically an updated, feature rich successor to Caffiene
Cost: Free Site: https://calibre-ebook.com/ Free, open-source, cross-platform ebook management system. Must have if you have an ebook reader like Kobo or Kindle
Little Snich 4
Cost: $40 Site: https://www.obdev.at/products/littlesnitch/index.html A beautifully designed outbound firewall that lets you keep track on which apps on your computer are making outbound connections and where to. Run it in silent mode and then check every once in a while to ensure no apps are leaking your information to places that they shouldn't be. For example you can block certain apps from reporting to Google Analytics if they haven't asked for your consent to collect analytics.
Money Dance
Cost: $50 Site: https://moneydance.com/ A cross-platform personal finance/budgeting app (no mobile syncing for investments). I only use it for its portfolio (stocks, forex etc.) tracking and end-to-end encrypted syncing capabilities.
App Cleaner & Uninstaller
Cost: Free and Pro for $10 Site: https://nektony.com/mac-app-cleaner Just a little bit more thorough than the free App cleaner from freemacsoft but that one shoud be good enough for you too.
Cost: Free 5 GB. +1GB/each referral Site (link with referral for +1GB upon signup): https://www.sync.com/?sync_refer=8940a2ba0 An end-to-end encrypted dropbox alternative. Use it to backup important documents on the cloud without having to worry about the service/hackers being able to get at the information on the server side.
Better Touch Tool
Cost: $7.5 Site: https://folivora.ai/ Great utility to customize touchbar on your Macbook Pro. Use it with one of the available customization packages to get started.
Scrivener
Cost: $50 (or $40 with code: LEARNSCRIVENER) Site: https://www.literatureandlatte.com/scriveneoverview Porbably the best long-form wirting tool on Mac (and even Windows). I prefer it over Ulysses because it's not subscription based. Free trial available, try it out.
Paste
Cost: $15 Site: https://pasteapp.me/ A clipboard manager that prganizes copied information in a great card based system. Allows iCloud based sync too that is optional.
I am reading FIFO regulations have been excluded in the 2018 tax bill? Does this mean I can finally trade like a decent human being? Does anyone know if this applies to Forex, and how soon we can expect our brokers to allow non-FIFO trades?
Would there be any interest in a Skype/whatsapp group to discuss strategies, short term price movements or other things 'too small' to create a thread about. Plus for people to talk to in long days of trading?
We are exploring having a LIVE aspect for this subreddit, an IRC server has been setup for you guys/girls to test out. Sponsored by Hot_Biscuits_. Here is the link. All web-based, no installation. If you like to chat live, i'll be parked there most of the time. It is still in the works, so feedback here and I'll get it fixed. For those of you who did not grew up during the internet chat phase, basically it is just a place for you to chat online. There is a main page where it shows the messages of everyone to everyone, or you can start a private chat by a double-click of the user shown on the user list. Edits:
Since we've all been goxxed now is the time to buy those $50-60 coins floating around and profit from everybody else's misery. Or you could wait for Gox to come back online and crash down the price even further but good luck trying to do any trading there to buy coins, the trading engine is already broken I don't expect the new one to work flawlessly due to epic 3yr history of GOXXING BTC-E.com To pay into this exchange, you need a BTC-E code, PM or Okpay. Take pics of your ID and utility bill and pay the $10 to Okpay for 'quick verification'. You can pay bitcoins directly into your Okpay account for initial funding or wait and see how long it takes for reg verification. Now either wire money, or instant money transfer (MoneyPolo, Contact-sys, Unistream) to fund your account or find an Okpay exchanger somewhere. Or Ukash/CashU. Just because contact-sys is Russian doesn't mean there aren't sending points in every country in the world. BTC-E codes you buy on #bitcoin-otc from verified gpg authenticated traders with good ratings, or on bitcointalk.org forums in the currency exchange forums. Perfect Money is a shady HYIP digital currency run by Russians much like Liberty Reserve. You sign up for free, and load your account with wires (if verified) or you use an exchanger. This is what talkgold.com is for to find legit exchangers. I use wm-center.com to wire WU/Moneygram and get PM. Click on 'Interkassa' payment method in BTC-E and select Perfect Money. Instant load. You can also obviously dump Litecoins you bought on Vircurex to fund the account, or a gagillion PPcoins Bitfloor.com Fastest way to deposit is through CapitalOne P2P or cash deposit https://bitfloor.com/docs/#funding-deposit Be aware Bitfloor is insolvent due to owing 25k bitcoins that were stolen last year but they have a repayment schedule that may or may not bankrupt them. Use at own risk but most ppl trade there everyday with no problems. Bitstamp.net Great exchange in Slovakia? I think. You have to pay with Euro SEPA wire, then for some stupid reason they convert the money to USD. You can pay in here using transferwise.com if you're from UK, or XEtrade and other Forex online money transfer companies. Google 'free money transfer fx' and review your options. Most don't charge you anything if over a certain amount of money. They take your internet billing or other local payment, convert to EUR and send SEPA for you if you request it. If they don't then check with Bitstamp what a SWIFT wire costs (probably nothing, I think they use Latvian banks that charge no receiving fees). If you want a bank account in Latvia then sign up here: http://www.rietumu.com/ if you have a local corporation or business where you live you can, maybe a personal account too. You can always incorporate a dirt cheap Delaware LLC or Oregon LLC from anywhere in the world and use it to open up worldwide bank accounts. Bitcoin-24.com Takes direct wires, all sorts of other methods: https://bitcoin-24.com/fees You can also use Liqpay if you have a USD or EUR card. Sign up to liqpay.com, then they block a small verification amount you have to sign into internet banking (for the card) to check. It's usually $1.something or less. After that you are verified to load $1-100 or so, but I'd just try $50 at first. Any more than that and Liqpay will seize the funds and ask for your bank to authorize a fax they send which no bank will do because of privacy reasons, so pointless to load anymore money. Liqpay may also call you to verify card details this is normal. Liqpay is meant for Russians and CIS countries to use like Ukraine so due to epic fraud of credit cards don't expect to load too much this way unless you find a Liqpay exchanger, but what's the point when you can just wire money to bitcoin-24 anyways. Vircurex.com Good exchange, had some problems due to DDoS but so did all exchanges. They only accept BTC, altcoins and VouchX for payment. You buy Vouchx here: https://www.aurumxchange.com/ or from somebody on Bitcointalk, or IRC (with rep). You can buy a bunch of litecoins anywhere to fund this exchange such as the bitcointalk forums or IRC. Warning: the so-called official twitter account is fake, don't use it. Cavirtex.com Can only fund if in Canada, they accept cash deposit and internet billing. Price has been steady at ~$90 all day though no panic selling. LibertyBit.com https://www.libertybit.com/funding various easy methods, new exchange in Canada that takes intl wires and shockingly Interac deposits (easily frauded). Bitcoin China https://btcchina.com/ fast growing exchange, you pay in with Alipay or Tenpay both Chinese methods that westerners can't use or figure out due to no translation. You can probably use Alipay if you find and exchanger to load it, they do exist. **Edit they now support Liberty Reserve deposit and withdrawal Check english forums to see if anybody exchanging Alipay or taking wires. CampBX.com Accepts money orders, and CapitalOne P2P payments. Also accepts Dwolla but you need to be verified. Bitcoin-central.net Just had a major outage due to instawallet hack, appears to be back online. You get your own quasi-bank account when you verify here much like how ecardone.com (liberty reserve) does banking so can transfer to other users legally with vouchers. You can buy a voucher p2p on Bitcointalk forums or IRC or send a bankwire. VirWoX.com You can pay with Paypal to get Second Life "Linden Dollars" then convert to BTC, or at least you used to be able to. I have no idea if this is still the case I've never used them. Or course there's all the fixed price exchangers https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade and https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=53.0 for everything from Moneypak to Skrill. You can also risk buying coins on Silk Road with moneypak ==============R U L E S ================================
Learn to use #bitcoin-otc, you'll thank me later. It has the most buying/sell options. Use localbitcoins.com too if you can to avoid bullshit exchange problems
ALWAYS USE 2-FACTOR ID ON EVERY EXCHANGE
Always use 2-factor ID on the email you used to sign up for the exchange
Don't click any links in BTC-E.com chat trollbox!!!
Don't click any links PM'd to you on BTC-E.com from other users
Enjoy buying all the way down the crash once Gox comes back online and the great sell off begins! Hold them for a year and they'll be worth 10x as much just like the 2011 crash. Bonus points if you speculate on Litecoin, rumor has it Gox will be trading them when they come back online but again, this is MtGox we are talking about so the site could implode on the zerg rush of people trying to get into their accounts or trading engine could sell all your coins for $0.0001 again like they did in 2011. Great successez!
I’ve been thinking of getting into the currency trade market. Do I know anything beyond “buy low sell high”? No. Do I have a ton of money? No. But I did turn 500$ into 100000$ in gta 5 in three days. That’s gotta mean something, right? Either way, I want to mess around with the idea. I know I can set up a demo account on forex, but not how. I tried talking about it in #forex on irc, but the channel is full of snooty big suits to whom 1002NIS is nothing. I want to play low level, no more than roughly 1000NIS. How do I start? Researching on my own showed things, but not actually USEFUL things.
I thought it would be a good idea to have a tax discussion each year to discuss Forex tax filing methods/techniques to account for any changes to make our lives easier. Also to find out which brokers might play nicer than others when it comes to providing tax documentation. There is tons of conflicting advice out there on how to file so I thought this would be a good place to see how everyone else is doing it. So, based on your last tax filing:
Were you profitable or unprofitable? (note: I've read that losing years should file 'IRC 988'; winners 'IRC 1256' for tax advantages)
What year was it?
Which broker?
Which filing software and packages did you try and was your experience a good one? TurboTax, HR Block, etc?
This is in response to DavidSeamenUS post about not knowing who people are.
Sorry, but none of these people are prominent members of the crypto community, or if they are they have simply escaped my attention until now and for that I apologize.
Guys, I've been involved with Vertcoin since week 2 ish? I've bought on the open market, I've mined coins, I've sold coins, and I have even used them to purchase goods. My name is Brad Chun and I'm one of your /vertcoin reddit moderators. This is me on the far right, helping out at the CryptoCurrencyConvention. http://i.imgur.com/vSE5a5D.jpg And this is an infographic CV http://re.vu/bradchun I haven't been as active in posting new things on Reddit, but not because I gave up on Vertcoin, but because I've started targeting my efforts on building real usable infrastructure and promoting the coin within the right business circles. Here's a bunch of Crypto related things that I'm involved with.
I am the CEO of a restaurant tech company that is focusing on discovery and point of sale integration of new technologies, currently called 4f tech http://4f.io. Through our platform we will be able to directly integrate many new technologies such as Bitcoin / Vertcoin payments directly into restaurants using their existing Point of Sale system.
I've signed as the US distributor for OpenRigs.com. Knowing full well that if GPU mining is to survive, it will most likely be through Vertcoin. In building my rigs, I wanted to use a high quality prefabbed case which I could not find in the US market. I ended up ordering "woody's" wooden kit from eBay for 80-90 bucks and it literally came with pine wood and nails and I had to build it myself. I would have much rather ordered an OpenRig; but after seeing the negative shipping comments I decided against it. Instead of ignoring it completely, I put up a lot of cash maybe $8k USD worth to purchase inventory and bring it over to the USA to help miners and fix this shipping problem and provide a service to other miners. I have a warehouse of rigs in NJ now and will be able to ship them directly to consumers via UPS or FedEx ground. (Oh, btw, Riccardo and OpenRigs, accepted VTC for my ~$8k order of components through the precursor to the VertPay platform, maybe it qualifies as the largest VTC purchase of real goods).
It turns out that OpenRigs and VertPay are real companies trying to build real goods and services around Crypto and Vertcoin, they have asked me to help oversee their operations because of my experience in payments and crypto, and I have agreed. You will find my name on their site.
I also serve as the Director of Bitcoin Strategy for Victoria Global, a global PR firm with relationships to investors and family offices around the world. In this capacity I am also meeting with Barry Silbert, CEO of SecondMarket, to discuss his new exchange, and of course I will be putting the Vertcoin bug in his ear. You will find me quoted in this equities.com article. http://www.equities.com/editors-desk/currencies-forex/brave-new-crypto-world
I teach entrepreneurship as an Adjunct Professor at NJIT. Crypto and Crowdfunding are two topics that I cover in depth.
I develop and help to moderate VertcoinMarket.com (albiet, not as actively as I did when I was promoting TheWaterProject fundraiser.)
You will find me on IRC in #Vertcoin-Market as a moderator when I can find time to get online.
I've silently been on the Vertcoin team for a long time now. You can reach me at [email protected]. In this capacity, I've been working with a group in China to further adoption and use of Vertcoin despite regulations. If you are on QQ chat, you can find a large group 800+ of Vertcoin fans on there. I'm also helping to organize the future features and timeline for the coin and see many cool projects coming down the pipeline.
The Vertcoin movement is alive and well in each one of us. You all have the capability to do something real and help out the adoption of Vertcoin. Each one of us can only do so much, but together we are an unstoppable force. Stop focusing on short term prices and pointing fingers at each other. Let's continue to show the world why Vertcoin is great, together.
So, there used to be a link to IRC chat on the sidebar. Now it appears to have been removed. Why did the mods remove it and does anyone have a link to it again? Also, did a search through forex history, and it looks like someone deleted the links there too. Where did the links go? Thanks for any information.
[Shibe Market Analysis] Manipulation & the Resilience of Markets
First off, I'm terribly sorry to have essentially disappeared and stopped publishing the Shibe Market Analysis. I've been "undercover", if you will, studying how the market is manipulated by the actor called "Wukong", and other so-called "whales". Here are my findings - Signs of Whale Activity The first signal of whale activity is a sharp increase in the traded volume, typically volumes will spike as much as 10x the normally traded amounts as the whale rapidly floods the market with orders to push the price in a certain direction. Typically this begins by removing a "wall", a large amount of BTC placed as orders at a certain price, which seemingly resists price movement in a direction. The whale often owns the majority of these orders, and by cancelling them causes regular traders to observe that there is suddenly much less resistance to price movement in a certain direction, and this in conjuction with the whale rapidly filling those orders which were not his causes the price to rapidly jump or fall, which in turn triggers "panic buying/selling" on the part of traders watching the price movement and the removal of this wall, which compounds the rapid price movement and causes the market to enter a state of hysteria. A Historic Case The best example of this is on the night of January 20th and early morning January 21st. You can actually see these bars on Dogemonitor. Throughout the day session on january 20th, volumes were noticeably higher, slowly pushing prices upwards. Following this, the first massive price spike occured at 19:00, and BTC was continually pumped into the market to a price of 242 satoshis - this is the effect of the market hysteria caused by those initial large purchases knocking down "sell walls", while simultaneously publicizing the fact that a mysterious chinese investor has come to "pump" doge. Then, an orchestrated effort on their part quickly causes a massive panic selloff, whereupon a few large sell orders "juke" traders into panic selling as they fear the rapid rise will be followed by a rapid fall, and the whale grabs the panic sells as traders panic in a process known as a "shakeout" or "washing", or zhencang. This allows the whale to recapitalize their investment at a lower price, essentially juking traders into selling their assets out of fear, while the whale knows full well when the dust is settled the price will be higher. With regard to the psychological game Wukong plays, he tells those in the IRC to "hold no matter what", serving two purposes - one, it makes sure he remains in control of the bounce back, namely that no one in the IRC "jumps the gun" and pushes prices up before he has a chance to start buying at the rock bottom, and two - those who do fall for his shakeout, despite his warning, are more inclined to trust him and not themselves, as they were just juked out of gains (without realizing it was Wukong who juked them in the first place). Daily Whale Tactics Nevertheless, such a large investment ("pump") on their part is quite expensive, and to recoup and profit from their antics whales have a more insidious and profitable method of profit-generating manipulation than simply "pumping". Studying the chart over the history from January 20th to today, you will notice that within the overall down trend from the high, there are also periodic cycles downwards, where the price holds for some time, followed by upwards, where the price holds for some time. This is how the whale makes money. The process consists of placing a "wall", a large amount of BTC discouraging traders from betting on price movement in that direction, and encouraging greedy traders to bet in the same direction as the wall - e.g. a sell wall at 165 encourages traders to sell at 164, to try and "undercut" the wall. The whale knows this, and happily will buy up all the sell orders coming in at 164, causing the market to "stall", essentially pausing any movement while the whale quietly accumulates doge. Occasionally a whale will allow prices to fall even further, should the selling ramp up, and then move the sell wall down, allowing the whale to continue racking up doge at cheaper and cheaper prices. Once the whale has accumulated a hefty position in doge, he removes the sell wall and simultaneous places large buy orders at prices higher than market, pushing the market up and inciting traders to quickly buy in, in anticipation of a pump. This causes a rapid escalation in prices, and further large buys placed by the whale allow him to influence the other traders to push the market to whatever price target the whale has in mind. At this point, the whale locks in the price by placing the remaining BTC he has as a "buy order" at a price slightly lower than market, encouraging the traders to place buy orders slightly above his wall. The whale slowly sells the doge he bought earlier when prices were lower to this trickle of buyers, and can then continue to repeat this process by using walls to influence the market before rapidly changing the price, all the while extracting smaller traders' capital. This process is akin to how wolves or predatory whales intentionally herd and then trap their prey, and is very much rooted in influencing the psychology of other traders, particularly by spreading disinformation and by taking advantage of the fact that crypto-traders have less experience with valuations based on fundamentals, and are more akin to rely on technical analysis, the information immediately presented before them on cryptsy, and rumors and hearsay in making their trading decisions. It also makes great use of herd mentality and the tendency of inexperienced traders to panic. Whale Signals You may wonder what happens when two whales are present, and how whales are able to coordinate their efforts - I've found that this is done through the chart, and that before a major price movement, a whale will announce their intent to other whales that may be in the market through a high volume bar, much higher volume than those surrounding it, that will rapidly push the price in the intended direction and then bring it back down immediately, which appears on the chart as an "arrow", marked by high volume and a large extruding wick in the intended direction. Should another whale disagree, they will use the same process to signal in the opposite direction, or if they agree will re-signal the same arrow. I am murky on the details, but through this process they reach an agreement and will move the price in the intended direction once all the whales have finished their transactions at the current price. Whales realize it is to their benefit to work together, and so will swallow their pride and allow the market to move against them in the short-term in order to continue the highly profitable "milking" of smaller traders in the long-term. Extreme Price Manipulation In addition to the usage of walls, I have observed a second, more extreme technique used to move the market when the strength of small traders is not enough, which Wukong refers to as "one hand to the other". The process, when intended to push the market up, has the whale place a sell order at a certain price, and simultaneously place a larger buy order at that price, rapidly causing the price to escalate to that price and consuming all sell orders in between, including the sell order placed by the whale. This causes an even more extreme movement of small traders than simply walling, as traders watching the price rapidly flock to the movement caused by the whale, causing an even more extreme price change. Repeated usage of this technique can cause the price to soar or tumble very rapidly, and is possible because it constantly recycles the holdings of BTC and doge in the whale's portfolio. However, there is a limit set by those orders which have to be eaten in order to move the price, and this places a constraint on how far the whale can move the price with their singular portfolio - it is possible that a group of whales combining their portfolio values to move the market can cause stupendous movements, like the one on January 20th - 21st. Notes about walls It is important to remember that the "walls" that are placed can be seen by everyone, and since a whale does not want you to catch onto their activities, the walls are meant to trick you. I have observed that whales actually place very small, typically 1000-10000 doge orders, repeatedly very quickly through the use of automated "bots", programmed using the cryptsy and other exchanges API. The walls are a distraction to allow their true trades to go undetected, and smart shibes will make it a point to discount the information gleaned from analyzing the dealbook. It is much more informative to instead study the actual market order history, as these are the orders than have been placed and can't simply be removed by pressing a button - often times you will find that even though a large sell is in place, the market order history shows that BTC is flowing in to doge - meaning prices will rise shortly. What it means to you These tactics are not reserved to dogecoin, and while doge may be past the point that a single group can manipulate the price, these same tactics will be used in other crypto-markets until exchanges take it upon themselves or governments mandate that the same rules governing forex and futures markets be applied in crypto-markets. Traders should be wary in the mean time. A small trader can still compete in this environment, especially armed with the above knowledge. In the IRC, I noted one specific small trader using the moniker "WhaleWhisperer", who was able to accurately read the whale signals and profit from their manipulation. Nevertheless, constantly watching the market and playing the psychological warfare game of the whales is taxing, and being wrong without solid risk management can rapidly erase value from a trader's portfolio. Traditional advice and strategies of finance are the most solid protective measure a small trader can take against manipulation, namely portfolio diversification (try to hold a good chunk of your portfolio in BTC, perhaps some LTC or other scrypts, and never more than 50% of your crypto net worth in doge, no matter how strongly you believe in it), re-allocating your portfolio after large price movements, and proper risk management on trading (never trade more than 10% of your portfolio value, and you should aim to only actively trade 2% or less). AFK trading, by which I mean deciding on good entry and exit prices beforehand, placing your orders, and then leaving your computer, is also an excellent strategy to avoid the mind games played by whales on tired and impulsive traders glued to their screens. Finally, having a fundamental valuation method allowing you to create your own "fair value" of DOGE is probably the strongest weapon against market manipulation. If your model is sound and correct in the long-run, prices will converge to your forecast, and your mind will be all the more stronger against manipulative tactics because of your deep-seated faith in your model. Put shortly, a fundamentals-based valuation is the defining line between "trading" and "investing". In subsequent articles I will outline how you can construct and use such a fundamentals based model. Happy trading shibes, and I'm glad to be back to this wonderful community. It's truly the community at /dogecoin and the related subs that instills long-lasting value in doge, and I hope that long after we get past market manipulation and have reached the moon that the same supportive community still exists. Disclaimer: I am not psychic and do not actually know where the market is going; I'm pretty sure the market doesn't know where its going either (except TO THE MOON!). Please do not base your trading decisions solely on the above analysis, and never trade more than you're comfortable losing. Finally, please do not hate/sue me if trades don't go your way, but if they do go your way, it was totally because you read this article :) If you're looking to learn how to trade or just want a quick refresher, check out my ongoing series, or if you just want to subscribe to these market analyses check out DogeTrader.
Hey all, I saw the posts that you all have been posting about. I'll answer some questions to clear the air first.
Q. Where has Gritt been?
A. Admittedly, not around enough. Been quite busy with a marriage a year ago which led to a break in the digital currency field. Further more, we just had our first baby last Friday. Also, some of you may be aware that I have been helping out on the Clubcoin project with sinetek for a group associated with the Bitclub Network.
Q. What's in Blackcoin's future?
A. The community. It has, and always have driven Blackcoin. Now, I have taken a step back on many things in regard but I do see a lack of community leadership to glue everyone and everything together. I do plan on making the effort back into this now that I can worry less about everything that I have been worried about. I get it, I have said that many times in the last year but life kept throwing balls at me that made it difficult to focus. Moving Foward First, join the fresh new Slack: https://slack-blackcoin.herokuapp.com Or, the IRC @ Freenode; #blackcoin EDIT: Apparently people are claiming that I am trying to split the community via a new group? What? Ehm, no that wasn't my intention. I just firmly believe that Slack is a better means of communication. Was planning on putting together a bot to bridge the two. Of course, for Blackcoin to continue there needs to be a form of rewards program and community drive, so to speak, to get money flowing into projects again as a form of incentive. Everyone involved needs to make a commitment and in my eyes, they need to see more rewards back into their pocket. Not just charity. We all have thrown money into projects thinking that it will return the profit in the form of the price going up. Many times, this wasn't the case as history has shown. It ended up with people frustrated and leaving. I have been speaking to Sujoy on quite a few ideas on how people can earn money on their investment within Blackcoin of which will not only help development, but it will also bring a ROI to your pocket. At first, this will start to drive development, attract people to Blackcoin, which will further increase the price. So, how can this be done? Through a variety of investments in things outside of Blackcoin that are handled by people experienced in those fields. Sujoy for instance, is a pro at Forex trading in my eyes. He would be able to take money in BLK and translate it into USD for Forex trading purposes and give out a ROI monthly and take a percentage out to pay to Blackcoin development. I averaged how much he is able to earn per month across all of his accounts going back 8 years and it is a staggering 7.4% per month. The banks can't beat that. He is also dedicated completely to it. Sujoy is one person, I'm sure there are others here that have skills in trading Altcoins and will be willing to start pots. Now, of course the question remains is, transparency and trust. You would want this to be completely trust-less. Of course, a DAO would make the most sense. However, I do believe that we may be able to make a platform that overcomes this with a form of reputation system. Kind of old-school BTC-OTC is a possible solution as we build for a better solution. With that, of course there is dzimbeck's BlackHalo which can bridge the gap of trust between people. I encourage people to use this. Think back to starting a business. You won't have all the flashy gear and high-end equipment. You would likely start out with your own two hands and not much automation. As you grow, you start to automate to make things more easier. We as a community need to start with what we can do with our hands as individuals and start think, how can I make Blackcoin better? It can be anything that you are skilled at. We need to build Blackcoin centric organisations and companies. Big or small. They all need capital and we need to show the world that we are the kings of PoS. You vote with your money, not your computational power. A while ago, there was the idea to bridge Peer Shares into Blackcoin aka BLKShares. This should be done. So for the future in terms of economy off the top of my mind are;
Sujoy's Hedge fund with Forex
Gritt's Blackcoin gold & silver fund (local and international). I can convert Blackcoin into gold / silver and back into Blackcoin. There will be proof of reserves.
Gritt's Cambodian local trading reserves (I'm doing about $10,000 in volume right now monthly on my own. I have ideas to expand it and if anyone wants to get involved, I can happily give them a ROI on their investment and keep it completely transparent.)
Gritt's micro financing. I have been dabbling into micro financing on my own to give people money that they need and then earning a monthly interest on it. So far, 100% successful.
Gritt's pay bills with digital currencies in Cambodia. I'm able to take in BTC or any other digital currency, charge a small commission and pay people's bills.
Altcoin / Bitcoin mining, again. This might not be a bad idea to pursue again.
Of course, mine are local (except the gold fund) and I can have been earn ROI and fund Blackcoin development with all those above. Development and Economy have to work hand in hand for Blackcoin. Rat4 does some amazing stuff and there are some amazing projects out there but there are nobody using them. We have the tools, we need the economy to move. So, going forward, I will get together what ever I need to get together for the Blackcoin community.
Slack channel
Chinese involvement
Update timeline
Twitter & Facebook activity
Proper FAQs and support page
Some form of claimed addresses page with people's ID's. A sort of Blackcoin directory if people want to participate.
Anything really. There are plenty of things that the greater community has worked on. The idea is to bring other altcoins into the Blackcoin economy. As in, people can pay with whatever coin they want to, and they'll get Blackcoin benefits paid out in Blackcoin. Once we have enough things for people to make legit money on, the more we'll attract people. I honestly don't know where and when to end this. I could keep going but I hope I painted the picture. ~ Gritt
GPU mining - Current day explanation breakdown as to why it's not profitable any longer for PowerPayers.
As some of you in the community know that I've been around for a little while now, GPU mining was my thing. I'm going to give you fellow miners a break down as to what my thoughts are and reasonings for not mining any longer. For those of you whom haven't read my previous posts, I started out in 2012 with two 7950's. I mined and made some decent profits, not great due to messing up some trades but still came out ahead and had paid off all my geapower costs and a little extra. I decided to expand and go big, I expanded to 12 cards and did pretty decent as well. broke even and then decided to expand even further to 53 cards, however for stability reasons I downsized to 46 280x's and removed any other models. I unfortunately did not come close to breaking even on that last venture due to ASICS hitting the market at the same time I received my shipment of GPU's that was backordered for 4 months. I've mined with the new system since April and have yet to come close to any ROI. I've been breaking even at best on power costs when averaging what i've mined to the costs of power I've spent. Here's some reasons why I've failed and or what was going on at the times: -asics hit the market at the same time and caused panic for GPU miners that were scrypt based.
GPU miners that went to other algo's right away before the asics came, may have done OK. I however was still on scrypt with my 12 cards, it was still a little profitable and seemed OK to be mining still, as the alternative algo's that were GPU only were starting to not be as profitable as some of the scrypt coins were. I still found that scrypt was profitable up to around May. In May it seemed that scrypt was going to be pretty much taken over by asics and GPU algo coins were showing to be more profitable in the sense where the power costs were lower for x11/13/15. However the profits were not that much greater. For instance I paid around $37 a day in power for scrypt and $18~ a day for x11/13/15. Profits for scrypt would be around $5-15 a day and profits for x11/13/15 would be around the same. This way I was spending less on power and making the same profit roughly.
Eventually auto mining I found wasn't working very well, I ended up with a lot of crap coins that I couldn't sell for decent prices and held them too long thinking they'd bounce from a market pop rather than dumping them instantly. (dumping instantly didnt seem to work too well, as I would mine them then go to dump and the price would have gone down %30+ making it not worth selling, leaving me with very little profit to no profit and actually costing me power money).
Rig rentals - I started renting my rigs out which was alright but not great, generally would make only $10-15 a day profit above power costs so the same as auto mining. Very quickly within a month the rental prices shot down so much that i was basically renting the rigs out for a few bucks a day profit to zero profit and losing money on the rentals yet having to deal with all the headache of monitoring my rigs.
I then tried focusing on the new released coins instead of using a auto mine pool, I noticed a lot of people on the forums loved trying to mine the new announced coins then holding them or dumping them instantly. That route didn't work out too well. I would say that out of the 10~ coins I tried mining on launch dates that maybe 3 of the 10 I ended up making decent profits on while the others completely turned into a scamcoin which meant I wasted my power money on them since they couldn't be sold on any exchange due to the communities realizing they were bugged or programmed to be a scam in the first place. I ended up probably breaking even between the power costs of those 10 coins and the profits from the 3. Some of the coins that werent scamcoins just ended up being dead ends that I should have dropped right away rather than hold for a rebound as none of them have rebounded to date.(MAIA coin for instance has yet to rebound to any prices anyone predicted on the forums)
Key points to remember about mining and or trading, whether its stocks, forex, crypto: Next to no one can be trusted, their opinion/word is irrelevant, money is what talks. If people can prove that they've invested in something heavily then their word holds more weight to what you are willing to put your own money down on. I've always taken note to the forums/trollboxes/irc that what's said anywhere is to be taken with a grain of salt. Hence why I've tried so many methods to see what may work and what may not work. I realize also that some of these methods such as auto mining, coin launches etc can work quite well if you are lucky enough to sell at the right times for the right prices(not being too greedy), however there are always going to be times that you'll get burnt in any of the above methods mentioned.
As of today and for the past month I've found that it's really not worth the time and effort to mine. Between the time I've spent researching what new coins to mine, renting my rigs etc. all the time that goes into what is now this very competitive industry I've found it isnt worth it. For the people whom get free power GPU mining is still barely worth the time. With 46 cards I would be able to make around $20 a day if I had free power and honestly my time is worth a lot more to me than $20 a day, seeing as to make that $20 I have to really put the time in to ensure I'm making good trades/mining the best coins for the day. Also the price of hardware is plummeting at accelerating rates. My rigs consisted of 280x's and the pricier models might I add, selling them used for the past two weeks I've noticed the majority of buyers are bottom feeders(People that are looking for a dirt cheap price on hardware and want to basically steal them off your hands). Less than 50% of the retail price is what they're asking for. And for myself, 50% of todays retail price is a slap in the face, seeing as my cards are less than 6 months old, have 2 year warranties and have been babied (not OC'd), when I removed them from the mining room, the majority of them didn't even have a spec of dust on them due to the air flow setup I had and as close to a dust free environment as I could get with industrial surge protection ensuring all hardware was safe. The general public doesn't think to look on craigslist, or the other free to post local services where you'll be likely to post your hardware. Only generally the bottom feeders are monitoring those sites and they will have no shame in offering you prices that are next to ridiculous, even when you state 'FIRM price' in your listing. Ebay gives you more exposure however ebay takes a cut on the sales. So you want $180 for your 280x? well now you have to put it up on ebay for $206~ due to the fee's from ebay/paypal, and now that $206 card costs the buyer an additional $15-30 in shipping. At the end of the day with ebay you're likely to be selling your hardware for a huge loss due to their fee's. I've yet to find a good site where you can post your hardware and reach the mass public to ensure a lot of views on your ads while being able to sell your hardware at a decent price. I've found Reddit hardware page also is hard to get decent buyers, a lot of bottom feeders will approach you much like on craigslist. As a consumer myself, I find it very odd that there's so many bottom-feeder type people out there on these local trading sites. If I was looking for a GPU or other hardware upgrades on the local trading sites, I'd be pretty fine and excited with getting a piece of hardware that is listed with at least a $100-150 savings(lets say retail is 340 after tax and there's an ad for an item at $200) but these bottom-feeders aren't, they want this stuff for far less to feel that they've gotten a 'deal'. All in all what I recommend for GPU miners and what I see the future of GPU mining coming to(there's a few scenarios): recommendations:
If you pay for power, sell your hardware while you can, prices are getting lower and lower every week on your hardware due to people trying to get rid of their gear, however try to do yourself a favour and not give into the bottom feeders, it doesn't help anyone when we let these guys get ahold of our hardware for beyond dirt cheap prices. Consider how long your warranty coverage is for, that coverage really does hold value.(how many used products do you buy end up having a warranty? and if they do, how many hold a long warranty greater than a year left? not many! The bottom feeders will be able to warranty the product if it ever has an issue and they'll still be getting a crazy deal after paying for the return to manufacture shipping cost!)
with your cash from your hardware, you can now buy BTC at a lower price than you were likely mining or the same. But now you'll have a lot more cash to spend on BTC rather than mining at such a slow rate. You can then take that BTC and invest it into alt coins giving you a lot more BTC to play with than you would have had with mining.(That's if you still want to invest in crypto after selling the hardware, otherwise keep your money!)
-If you don't pay for power, consider still selling your hardware, look at my setup, 46 cards making $20 a day on average. The time it would take to ROI on my hardware is close to 5+years, and that's with free power! What are the chances that I'll ROI if I kept mining? next to none. Most of you out there have 1-6 cards, you're making peanuts most likely. Get rid of the hardware, re-invest the money into BTC and buy your ALT coins that you believed in mining if you were a long term coin holder. Or just take the cash and spend it on other things in life! The price of your hardware will continue to decline and you're likely not going to make more over time with the mining. Some arguments to consider: "Price of BTC may rise to $10000 one day, so mining with gpu's now if you have free power is still worth it!" some people state. Well I can tell you that I've seen it happen multiple times where the price of BTC has risen and the price of ALT's has corrected itself. There have been far and few moments in crypto history where ALT coins have gone UP with BTC especially recently. Chances of your random coin climbing the fiat ladder as BTC rises is very slim. Out of the hundreds of coins out there now, what coin are you going to bet on to rise with BTC while the rest of them stay at their current day fiat prices? For example, a coin lets say you hold now is worth $0.10 cents. When BTC hits $1000, it corrects and is still worth $0.10 cents equivalent in fiat. Not many coins are going to RISE in value alongside BTC.(That's if BTC rises, no one can for sure say if it even will!) Chances of you choosing the few coins that do rise with BTC will be slim. All in all if you have the spare money to mine, sure do it, it's fun to contribute to the community, but don't expect to make a buck unless you've gone industrial size like myself, and even then you're making such little profit if you have free power.(who's going to get free power at $18 a day running costs? not many!) What the GPU scene needs is new GPU hardware that can mine way better than anything out today for GPU's(likely not to happen for cheap) and or we need GPU coins to hold value somehow, IE a good marketing campaign where the GPU coin(s) can clearly gain back investors. I don't see GPU mining being profitable again really for quite some time if ever and thus I'm getting out of it for now. I've been burnt bad enough with the most recent expansion that I wont be able to get into mining again for quite some time. Time will tell. For now I recommend people sell hardware and buy crypto with the money or instead of buying hardware if you're thinking of getting into mining, just buy crypto outright. Mining right now is a loss for the majority of miners out there. Hope this post has helped shed some light to those that are looking to get into mining or who are in mining and unsure of what's going on and what to do. (and again, take my feedback with a grain of salt, you don't know who you can trust when it comes to you and your investments :P) Also as a side note my power costs are around .12 to .14 per KWh. Which is supposedly quite cheap compared to many places in the world.
I've read a lot of material on the website Greentradertax but i wanted to see if i could get more insight on this matter here. This is where i am deriving most of my info from. "By default, forex spot and forward contracts have Section 988 ordinary gain or loss treatment. Traders holding these forex contracts as capital assets may file an internal contemporaneous “capital gains election” pursuant to IRC § 988(a)(1)(B) to opt out of section 988 and into capital gains and loss treatment. If such an election is made, then for forex forwards — and forward-like forex contracts, including spot forex in some cases — taxpayers may use Section 1256(g) (foreign currency contract) treatment, providing it’s in major currencies for which regulated futures contracts trade on U.S. futures exchanges, and the taxpayer does not take or make delivery of the underlying currency" https://greentradertax.com/why-do-forex-forward-dealers-issue-1099s-yet-spot-forex-brokers-do-not/ My current broker is oanda and i know they do not release any tax forms to you. I will have to use my account statement to report my taxes. So... Can a spot Forex trader opt out of Sec988 and elect for Sec 1256 tax treatment? If so how do i do this?
A person going by the handle wolong built notoriety over the course of several months. Using capital from his friends, he manipulated cryptocurrency markets to his own gain. His efforts increased over time, as did his infamy on various sites including twitter, 4chan, bitcointalk, and on IRC channels. Some chose to follow him, and among them were winners and losers. Most were unaware, and caught blindsided by his manipulative antics. Eventually he developed a cult-like following, even having his new followers have to pay him just to enter his IRC chatroom! His options for manipulating markets was limited by his friends' capital, and by the fact that there were many other players in the markets. He thus decided to create/attach himself to a new coin, a coin named Pandacoin. This brought him attention he did not expect and did not want. A group had been watching him manipulate markets and brag about it. We are that group. We did not like his tactics; they are toxic to the rise of cryptocurrency validity. His tactics are akin to the underhanded measures taken by those in control of the stock markets, FOREX market, precious metals market, and fiat currency in general. We noticed that there was already a Pandacoin in existence. It seemed a silly and foolish move for him to release a coin with a name already in existence, and it just so happens to be that silly is right up our alley! We decided to literally one up wolong and create the third Pandacoin. We have seen, over and over, the creation of new cryptocurrencies with premines and IPOs, only to have the developers and first adopters quickly dump the entirety of their coins when they were added to an exchange. This damages the community as a whole, and a lot of people end up losing money over this. That is why our Pandacoin had zero premine. Zero premine is fair and prevents such greedy exploitation. We knew what wolong and his ilk were all about - manipulating the markets for their own short-term gain. It was obvious that they would not be able to remain cohesive and create a real currency with any semblance of community. It played out exactly as we expected, with the developers, wolong, and initial adopters turning on each other and dumping their coins, absolutely wrecking the price that they had inflated. They couldn't hold it together a week! Our initial goal was solely to expose wolong and his cronies for the cretins that they are. We had watched them mess with several coins which negatively affect many honest miners and traders. We have documentation of his twitter feed, bitcointalk posts, and IRC logs regarding his manipulation of dogecoin and other coins. He had no interest in fostering a community or building a long term viable currency. His only interest was in himself, and similar minded people followed him. We wanted to point this out to people who were not aware of his past so that they would not be bamboozled and lose money and time. Some took note of our warnings, but unfortunately many did not. In retrospect, we were clearly right, and our intitial goal was attained. Why stop there? We can do more! We have fostered a grass roots community of miners and traders who want an honest coin, without premines, without IPOs, without shady developers, without all of the toxicity that has sprung up in the cryptocurrency world. The centralization and manipulation of monetary markets has created global problems. Wars have been fought. Poverty has been induced. We have been enslaved to debt while a select few families live in obscene opulence. Cryptocurrencies are a possible solution to this grave issue. Cryptocurrencies can restore the power to the people, to me, to you, to us. Our Pandacoin is a step in that direction. Property of Wewlad EDIT: :)
It's another one those “let's have a rational discussion about Bitcoin” posts. As something of a believer I am not interested in trashing Bitcoin, but it's clear that not everyone's vision of the future for Bitcoin is the same, so here is mine. First the negative. Bitcoin is terrible for in person transactions, and I suspect it always will be. What Bitcoin excels at is being “Internet Money”. No average Joe wants to wait 10 minutes for a confirmation whilst buying a cup of coffee. The main arguments against this are a mixture of “zero confirms is good enough” and “services on top of Bitcoin facilitating off chain transactions”. Merchants do care about small value losses, the CCTV cameras in most small convenience stores prove this, whilst the Satoshi client does not let you double spend easily with zero confirms, in terms of the protocol it is trivial. If Bitcoin adoption grows and zero confirms start to become common we should assume we will see alternate clients designed to make double spending as easy as possible. As for services facilitating off chain transactions, what is the difference from the consumers point of view between this and a Credit Card?, add in the fees for this off chain service and you are likely at the same cost as a CC payment. Bitcoin adds little value over cash or CC in the real world, fiat currencies for transacting locally are difficult to beat. The enthusiasm for Bitcoin is impressive, but Bitcoin's future does not lie in Subway, bars, coffee shops, etc. Bitcoin has also conclusively proved that not everybody is ready to be their own bank, here are some examples.
MtGox gaining new customers despite their banking problems being well publicised.
People complaining about the price rising after they sold coins, expecting the exchange to make up the difference (yes I have come across this on IRC and it didn't appear to be joke).
BFL pre order customers forcing refunds from PayPal, despite BFL having a poor reputation before they began accepting ASIC orders.
People losing coins because they don't understand how change addresses work.
People forgetting passwords to their wallets. *People losing coins due to insecure wallets, poor passwords, brain wallets, web wallets, etc.
The last point about security is important, I consider myself to be fairly technical but find the task of securing Bitcoins daunting. The most difficult scenario is where someone has a lot of coins but needs to spend some of them frequently. The community could really do with a dedicated guide about security listing the options and trade off's, the Bitcoin wiki page currently is a bit too focussed on the Satoshi client. Note that simply blaming the user isn't good enough, CC and cash offer a much better consumer experience (lost your credit card?, call your bank and get it cancelled and re-issued). Now the positive. I see lots of scenarios where Bitcoin is incredibly successful but the average Joe knows nearly nothing about it.
Buying things over the internet (duh), particularly internationally. Bitcoin gels very well with the increasingly globalised and smaller world that we live in.
Remittances.
Allowing unbanked people to participate in the global economy cheaply.
A stable and liquid reserve currency which could become a kind of meta currency. For example currently if you try to convert two disparate currencies through FOREX, say Singapore Dollar and South African Rand, the money will likely be converted into USD in between. Bitcoin could be well suited to this intermediate step.
B2B transactions, Bitcoin is great way for companies to settle with each other.
Savings, Bitcoin is a great way to diversify, whilst nothing is guaranteed in life, Bitcoin being widely adopted means it is likely to hold it's value.
The last point is also important, one common theme I see in the Bitcoin community is that of banks hating Bitcoin. For investment banks in particular this is likely to false, they currently trade and speculate on a large number of commodities every day and would welcome a global instrument like Bitcoin. Retail banks don't have much to fear either, as previously mentioned even Bitcoiners love to be able to reverse payments in some circumstances (BFL pre orders). I suspect the reason the banks are not all over Bitcoin yet, is due to a combination of regulatory worries and inertia. Banks have become risk averse since the 2008 financial collapse and it would be disingenuous to suggest that Bitcoin is without risk. One final point about inflation versus deflation, roughly speaking most western countries were on the gold standard for about a 100 years, and we have been off it for nearly as long. What is often ignored by newcomers to Bitcoin (but I have seen raised in the community) is that a monetary system is not independent of the world it exists in. The last hundred years have seen a huge increase in the planets population and this will inevitably bring with it resource scarcity. There may be a perfect one size fits all monetary policy, I doubt Bitcoin will be it, but Bitcoin may be exactly what the world needs to get the world through leaner times. So to summarise, I find it hard to envision Bitcoin replacing fiat completely, if Bitcoin is really successful fiat could be commonly measured against Bitcoin.
Forex IRC and Skype channels? Post # 1; Quote; First Post: Feb 4, 2009 6:01am Feb 4, 2009 6:01am ForexDude Membership Revoked Joined Aug 2006 110 Posts. Someone knows some good Forex IRC and Skype chat rooms? What server/room do you enter? Thanks. Why do we fall? "So we can learn to pick ourselves up." ... Forex: Taxed as Futures or Cash? Currency traders involved in the forex spot (cash) market with a US brokerage firm, can choose to be taxed under the same tax rules as regular commodities [IRC (Internal Revenue Code) Section 1256 contracts] or under the special rules of IRC Section 988 (Treatment of Certain Foreign Currency Transactions). Upgrade your FINVIZ experience. Join thousands of traders who make more informed decisions with our premium features. Real-time quotes, advanced visualizations, backtesting, and much more. Only interest income on forex accounts is 1099 reportable. The above forex broker told us that their big-four accounting firm initially wanted them to issue 1099s for forex accounts in the same way a futures broker issues 1099s for IRC 1256 contracts. The big four firm explained that forex was now considered a futures related product. Several traders fail at online trading because they are completely unaware of the entire system. For instance, many Irc Forex Channel of them consider both forex and Irc Forex Channel binary trading to be the same concepts. However, after reading this article, several traders would come to know that both forex and Irc Forex Channel binary trading are two different concepts.
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